Post-Irak conflict op Duitse bodem?

Turks-Koerdische spanningen kunnen oplopen

Achtergrond 17 maart 2003

(17 maart 2003) Met een dreigende oorlog in Irak wordt in Nederland op dit moment niet alleen gevreesd voor de internationale gevolgen, maar ook voor de binnenlandse consequenties. Een oorlog in Irak zou de spanningen tussen islamitische en autochtone bevolkingsgroepen wel eens kunnen opvoeren, net nu de verhoudingen, na de roerige periode volgend op de aanslagen van 11 september 2001, weer in wat rustiger vaarwater zijn gekomen. Geldt deze zorg ook voor Duitsland? Welke potentiële spanningen tussen etnische groepen zijn voor de Duitse situatie relevant? Wat kan de Duitse regering doen om deze problemen te voorkomen?

Net als de Nederlandse neemt de Duitse regering de gevolgen van een oorlog in Irak zeer serieus. Op 27 februari 2003 kwamen de Europese ministers van Binnenlandse Zaken, waaronder de Duitse minister Schily, bijeen om over de binnenlandse gevolgen van een oorlog in Irak te spreken. Volgens Schily moet de Europese Unie rekening houden met een toenemende dreiging van geweld door linksextremisten en buitenlandse terroristische groeperingen. Turks cafe in Duitsland In een eerder interview met Welt am Sonntag had Schily al aangegeven dat Duitsland een mogelijk doelwit voor terroristische aanslagen kan vormen en voegde hij hier aan toe dat extremistische organisaties van buitenlanders in Duitsland maar liefst 57.500 leden hadden in het jaar 2002. Hij benadrukte echter dat het grote merendeel van de moslims in Duitsland absoluut niet over één kam dient te worden geschoren met de extremistische uitwassen van de Islam. Al met al duidt de Duitse regering de gevolgen van een oorlog in Irak in gelijke termen als bijvoorbeeld de Nederlandse, behalve dat de nadruk meer op gewelddadigheden wordt gelegd dan op algemene verslechtering van de verhoudingen tussen moslims en autochtonen.

Er is echter nog een ander perspectief voor de Duitse situatie van belang: de verhoudingen tussen verschillende etnische minderheden. Dit perspectief kan nog niet op veel aandacht in de Duitse media rekenen, tenzij het om de bescherming van Joodse instellingen en bezittingen gaat. Duitsland zou er in deze goed aan doen aandacht te besteden aan een kwestie die de afgelopen vijftien jaar regelmatig de kop op heeft gestoken en door een oorlog in Irak wederom kan escaleren: de Koerdische kwestie.

Turken en Koerden in Duitsland: een casus aparte
 In Duitsland wonen naar schatting ongeveer 1.6 miljoen (etnische) Turken en 500.000 Koerden (ter vergelijking: in Nederland wonen naar schatting 270.000 (etnische) Turken en 60.000-70.000 Koerden). Terwijl de Turken meestal als gastarbeiders naar Duitsland zijn gekomen, zijn veel Koerden als politiek vluchteling gearriveerd. De in totaal ongeveer 35 miljoen Koerden in Europa en het Midden-Oosten vormen een volk zonder land dat de door hen gewenste culturele en politieke rechten ontbeert en met politieke en militaire middelen in het verleden heeft gestreefd naar meer autonomie en onafhankelijkheid. Het grote aantal Koerden in Duitsland heeft een nieuwe dimensie aan de Koerdische kwestie toegevoegd. De Koerden hebben in Duitsland de gelegenheid aangegrepen om zich vrij te organiseren, hetgeen in het Midden-Oosten een stuk lastiger is en door de verschillende regeringen met argusogen wordt bekeken. De organisaties in Duitsland spelen door hun relatieve vrijheid daarom een belangrijke rol in de gehele transnationale Koerdische gemeenschap, hetgeen ook minder plezierige kanten van de kwestie naar Duitsland heeft gebracht.

Logo PKK In het verleden heeft zich een aantal voorvallen voorgedaan waarbij het tussen Turken en Koerden in Duitsland tot grote spanningen en zelfs geweld is gekomen. Vanaf het einde van de jaren tachtig zijn de PKK (de Koerdische Arbeiderspartij) en gelieerde organisaties begonnen aan een campagne om de Duitse regering druk op Turkije te laten uitoefenen aangaande de Koerdische kwestie. In 1993 liepen de spanningen op en kwam het tot openlijke geweldpleging tegen Turkse bedrijven en instellingen in Duitsland. De PKK werd verboden, omdat de leider van de partij, Abdullah Öcalan, vooraf had 'gewaarschuwd' voor mogelijk geweld tegen Turkse instellingen in Duitsland. Het verbod van de PKK leidde op zijn beurt weer tot gewelddadige demonstraties, totdat Öcalan Koerden in Europa opriep te stoppen met het geweld. Vanaf dat moment zou de PKK volgens haar leiders een politieke koers moeten gaan varen in plaats van een militaire. Deze koers heeft de partij tot op de dag van vandaag nog niet verlaten, ondanks de spectaculaire arrestatie van Öcalan in 1999 door Turkije en de daaruit voortvloeiende onrust. Alleen in Duitsland al werden toen 46 demonstraties gehouden, tien acties tegen diplomatieke vertegenwoordigingen ondernomen en werden drie Koerden doodgeschoten bij een bestorming van het Israëlische consulaat in Berlijn.

Uitzicht voor Duitsland
Abdullah Ocalan Het is natuurlijk niet helemaal toevallig dat de genoemde spanningen tussen Koerden en Turken opliepen na het einde van de Golfoorlog in 1990-1991. Na de Golfoorlog werd immers een deel van Noord-Irak de facto een semi-autonoom gebied, waardoor Koerden in de hele regio hoop zagen gloren met betrekking tot het vestigen van een eigen Koerdische staat. Met een mogelijk nieuwe oorlog voor de boeg wordt dit streven natuurlijk weer actueel. Ook Turkije roert zich in deze. Met de Verenigde Staten is afgesproken dat Turkije Noord-Irak zou mogen bezetten wanneer de situatie zich daar in haar ogen toe leent. Turkije wil de oprichting van een onafhankelijke en olierijke Koerdische staat koste wat kost voorkomen. Een confrontatie tussen Turkse militairen en Koerdische gewapende groepen kan daarom tot een escalatie leiden met ernstige gevolgen voor de situatie in Duitsland.

Wat kan Duitsland doen om dit zwarte scenario te vermijden? In de eerste plaats zal Duitsland haar bijzondere positie moeten realiseren als belangrijk knooppunt in de netwerken van transnationale Turkse en Koerdische gemeenschappen. Duitsland kan wellicht via contacten met Koerdische organisaties en de Turkse regering voorzichtig als bemiddelaar optreden wanneer de situatie in Noord-Irak uit de hand dreigt te lopen. In de tweede plaats zou het goed zijn om escalatie voor te zijn door nu al gesprekken met Turkse en Koerdische organisaties te voeren. Een positief punt hierbij is dat de meeste Turkse en Koerdische organisaties in Duitsland zich achter het Duitse nee tegen oorlog hebben geschaard. Dit kan een verbindende factor tussen de verschillende etnische gemeenschappen vormen.

Voorlopig is het echter ook afwachten wat de Veiligheidsraad, de Verenigde Staten en vooral de nieuwe premier van Turkije, Erdogan, zullen doen. Wanneer Erdogan een nieuw voorstel voor het toelaten van Amerikaanse militairen inbrengt, zal dit grote kans hebben om aangenomen te worden. Een dergelijke beslissing zal Turkije actief in de oorlog betrekken en de Koerdische kwestie in Noord-Irak op de spits kunnen drijven met alle gevolgen van dien voor Duitsland.

Turkse regering over de Koerdische kwestie
Türkische Gemeinde in Deutschland
Patriotische Union Kurdistan
Informationstelle Kurdistan e.V.
Bundesministerium des Innern
E. Østergaard-Nielsen, 'Transnational Politics. Turks and Kurds in Germany', Routledge, Londen, 2003.

Sander Kruse is medewerker van het Duitsland Instituut Amsterdam. Hij houdt zich bezig met het thema multiculturaliteit en integratie in Duitsland en Nederland. In het verleden studeerde hij politicologie en nieuwste geschiedenis aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam.

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Associated Press photo
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